I really think there are three pivotal states in this election: Wisconsin, Ohio, and Florida. Whoever wins two out of these three wins the Presidency.
Here's my reasoning (only my opinions -- feel free to disagree): Bush will pick up Iowa and New Mexico and win all of the 2000 Red States, except New Hampshire which he will lose to Kerry, and Ohio and Florida which are uncertain. Kerry will definitely pick up New Hampshire and win all the 2000 Blue States, except Iowa and New Mexico which go to Bush, and Wisconsin which is uncertain.
From the above scenario, Kerry surely gets 242 electoral votes, and Bush surely gets 239 electoral votes. 270 electoral votes are required to win the Presidency. Therefore whoever wins any two out of these three states wins the presidency: Wisconsin (10 electoral votes), Ohio (20 electoral votes), and Florida (27 electoral votes)*
You can check for yourself what I just said: Here is the
Election 2000 Presidential Election map. For Election 2004, you can calculate the number of electoral votes for Bush and Kerry under different scenarios,
using Daily Kos's electoral calculator. You can see state-by-state polling numbers for Kerry and Bush
here and
here.
I just want you to get an idea of how close it is in Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin with the graphs below, which are always available here. These graphs will be updated through Election Day as new polls come out. And I would like to ask you to at least two things as much as you can:
1. If possible, please call any and all people you know (even tangentially) in these states to (a) convince them to vote for John Kerry and (b) get them to go to the polls. Florida has early voting, and you can find info on early voting here. You can find info on polling place locations here, or, if they don't have the exact polling place, this link at least has the phone # for the local election official who can tell it to you. I know this is a lot of effort. But, as you can see below, it is so close that your efforts really could make the difference in preventing four more disastrous years of George W. Bush
2. Second, national media coverage does affect the presidential race in each state. Please write in to national television media outlets, both on cable and the networks. Say whatever you think it takes to set their pro-Bush-anti-Kerry coverage straight. Here are links to email contact info and phone contact info for the various national media outlets. For example, Kerry is right in arguing that Bush screwed up Osama bin Laden's capture at Tora Bora by outsourcing the job to Afghan warlords. Kerry is also right in criticizing Bush for saying of bin Laden that he is "not concerned about him." Now television media is saying that Kerry is somehow "exploiting" the recent bin Laden tape when he makes these arguments. This is an obvious attempt to manipulate public opinion in favor of Bush. Again, I know that this is time consuming, but look below at how close Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin are, and you will see that your contribution could make the difference.
Ohio
Florida
Wisconsin
*If Bush wins just Ohio and Wisconsin and not Florida, there is an electoral college tie of 269 to 269, in which case Congress selects Bush. So it still holds that the winner of two out of those three states is the winner of the Presidency